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DESCRIPTION
Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.
Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy, in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.
This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future technological development roadmaps.
The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.
Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and costs.
Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly, most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised electric vehicle sectors such as cars.
Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars. Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast
charging of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.
Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared research.
Main areas the report covers
The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial & commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors, there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of latest company activity.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Dominant commercial vehicle types and influences change
1.2. Market forecasts
1.3. IDTechEx forecast for commercial vehicles 2016-2026
1.4. Latest progress
1.5. Examples of new industrial and commercial vehicles and projects announced in 2016
1.5.1. Powertrain choices change radically
1.6. Electrical machine systems take more cost, batteries less
1.7. The elephant in the room: conventional vehicles
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Urban logistics trends
2.2. Technology disagreement
2.3. The special case of China
2.3.1. Pollution control is urgent
2.3.2. Particulate matter - China the worst
2.3.3. Inadequate roads and parking
2.3.4. Example of action BYD
2.4. Biggest EV?
2.5. Different strategies
3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
3.1. Trends
3.2. Advantages of electric commercial vehicles
4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
4.1. What is included
4.2. Challenges
4.3. Forklifts
4.3.1. Small forklift success
4.3.2. A look at many FC forklifts across the world
4.3.3. Plug Power transforms the industry
4.3.4. Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT
4.3.5. Forklift market analysis
4.3.6. FC material handling fleets and standards
4.3.7. Market analysis
4.3.8. FC material handling fleets and standards
4.4. Listing of manufacturers
4.4.1. Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck
4.4.2. Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs
5. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL EVS
5.1. Introduction
5.1.1. Overview
5.1.2. One quarter of commercial vehicles in Germany can be electric now?
5.2. Sub categories
5.3. Local services
5.4. Airport EVs
5.4.1. USA statistics
5.4.2. GSE by airline and airport
5.4.3. Here come hybrids
5.4.4. US incentives
5.4.5. Overall market
5.4.6. Airport applications widen
5.4.7. Sea-Tac Airport 2014
5.5. Small people-movers
5.6. Chrysler minivan in 2015
5.7. Dong Feng China big minivan order
5.8. Light industrial
5.9. Listing of manufacturers
6. BUSES AND TRUCKS
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Summary of technical preferences
6.3. Statistics issues
6.4. Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
6.5. Chinese price/performance
6.6. Cost trends - China ready to pounce
6.7. Market drivers and impediments
6.8. Regional differences
6.9. China, India and cities
6.10. Radical change
6.11. Truly global market for similar buses
6.12. Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
6.13. Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
6.14. Value chain and powertrain
6.15. Hybrids becoming pure electric
6.16. Relative importance of technical options
6.17. Technology disagreement
6.18. Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
6.18.2. Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses
6.19. Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
6.19.1. Automotive industry
6.19.2. School buses
6.19.3. Largest bus manufacturers
6.19.4. Review of 2012-2014
6.20. E-bus news in 2016
6.21. Trucks
6.21.1. Which Electric Truck Powertrain Wins?
6.21.2. Medium and heavy duty trucks
6.21.3. Travel through Munich in a vehicle that is 100% electric, clean, quiet
6.21.4. News in June 2016 - Mack Trucks to Evaluate Wrightspeed Route Powertrain in Mack LR Model
7. TAXIS
7.1. Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
7.2. Huge order from the Philippines?
8. THREE WHEEL COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
8.1. Background
8.2. Three wheelers as crossover products
8.3. Operational benefit of three wheel
8.3.1. Introduction
8.3.2. Nissan DeltaWing
8.3.3. The basics driving us to three wheel
8.3.4. Energy efficiency
8.3.5. Relative magnitude of energy dissipation
8.3.6. Occupancy trend favours 3 wheel?
8.3.7. Low cost three wheel vehicle market
8.3.8. The Indian three wheel market - the largest globally
8.3.9. Electric three wheeler penetration
8.4. Benefits of three wheelers
8.5. Three wheel electric vehicles: varied positioning in the market
8.5.1. Twike, Piaggio, Xingui and others contrasted
8.5.2. Toyota scenario
8.5.3. Philippines: big new commitments to e trikes
8.5.4. Spira4u in 2015
8.6. Mule: Modern Electric Workhorse to Slice Through Urban Traffic Easily
8.7. Barriers for adoption of three wheel EVs
9. ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING
9.1. Overview
9.2. Value proposition and environmental restrictions
9.3. Autonomous vehicles for agriculture and mining
9.4. Energy and work synchronization in mining
9.5. Light manned vehicles - PapaBravo Canada
9.6. Examples of cranes and lifters
9.7. Caterpillar and Komatsu: energy harvesting on large hybrid vehicles
9.7.1. CALSTART partnerships
9.7.2. Other electrification of large vehicles
10. KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
10.1. Types of electric vehicle
10.2. Many fuels
10.3. Born electric
10.4. Pure electric vehicles are improving
10.5. Series vs parallel hybrid
10.6. Modes of operation of hybrids
10.6.1. Plug in hybrids
10.6.2. Charge-depleting mode
10.6.3. Blended mode
10.6.4. Charge-sustaining mode
10.6.5. Mixed mode
10.7. Microhybrid is a misnomer
10.8. Deep hybridisation
10.9. Hybrid vehicle price premium
10.10. Battery cost and performance are key
10.11. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
10.12. Ultracapacitors = supercapacitors
10.12.1. Where supercapacitors fit in
10.12.2. Advantages and disadvantages
10.12.3. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
10.12.4. Supercapacitors - a work round for troublesome batteries
10.12.5. Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors
10.13. Range extenders
10.13.1. What will be required of a range extender?
10.13.2. Three generations of range extender
10.13.3. Fuel cell range extenders
10.14. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
10.15. Energy harvesting
10.16. Trend to high voltage
10.17. Structural components
10.18. Trend to distributed components
10.19. Trend to flatness then smart skin
10.20. Traction batteries
10.20.1. After the shakeout in car traction batteries
10.20.2. The needs have radically changed
10.20.3. It started with cobalt
10.20.4. Great variety of recipes
10.20.5. Other factors
10.20.6. Check with reality
10.20.7. Lithium winners today and soon
10.20.8. Reasons for winning
10.20.9. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
10.20.10. Winning chemistry
10.20.11. Titanate establishes a place
10.20.12. Laminar structure
10.20.13. Niche winners
10.20.14. Fluid situation
10.21. Traction motors
10.21.1. Definition and background
10.21.2. Traction motor trends
10.21.3. Shape of motors
10.21.4. Born electric - in-wheel electric wheels
10.21.5. Examples of motors in action
10.22. Power electronics
11. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPANY PROFILES
11.1. Ayton Willow
11.2. Bradshaw Electric
11.3. Caproni JSC
11.4. Crown Equipment Corporation
11.5. Hyster-Yale
11.6. John Deere
11.7. Jungheinrich AG
11.8. Kion Group GmbH
11.9. Liberty Electric Cars
11.10. MAN Truck & Bus AG
11.11. Toyota Motor
11.12. Valence Technologies
11.13. VISEDO Oy
11.14. ZNTK Radom
TABLES
1.1. Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026
1.2. Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2016-2026
1.3. Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2016-2026
2.1. Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
3.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
3.2. Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric versions
3.3. Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
4.1. 27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
5.1. 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
6.1. Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green
6.2. Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green.
6.3. Market drivers and impediments are summarised below.
6.4. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
6.5. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers
6.6. League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh
6.7. The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green
6.8. Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus
6.9. Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics
6.10. Some of the main technological options compared
6.11. Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
6.12. Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2016-2026
6.13. e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted
6.14. 2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey
6.15. Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country
6.16. School bus statistics for USA and China 2015
6.17. First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4
6.18. Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t
6.19. Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014
6.20. Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a
6.21. Examples of E-bus news in 2016 with IDTechEx comment
7.1. 19 projects testing pure electric taxis
8.1. Domestic sales by category in India
8.2. Planned Deployment of Electric 3 wheelers in India
10.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
10.2. Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
10.3. Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
10.4. Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends
10.5. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
10.6. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
10.7. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
10.8. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles
10.9. 68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details.
10.10. Examples of electronics and electrics replacing mechanical parts in electric vehicles.
10.11. Examples of cost reduction of electrics/ electronics by radical alternatives.
FIGURES
1.1. Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026
1.2. Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2016-2026
1.3. Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2016-2026
1.4. Japanese strawberry picking robot
1.5. The Wall-Ye V.I.N. robot created by Christophe Millot and Guy Julien, picks grapes in a vineyard
1.6. Daimler is developing the Mercedes-Benz Future Truck 2025, an autonomous vehicle for on-road goods transport.
1.7. Peloton Technology
1.8. Domino's Pizza Enterprises announced its experimental DRU autonomous pizza delivery robot
1.9. Bonirob from Deepfield Robotics automates and speeds up analysis.
1.10. 'Dancer bus' is a project by JSC 'vejo projektai'
1.11. Citaro will hit the market as an E-Cell (BEV), as well as a F-Cell (FCV)
1.12. View of Volvo Group on future of truck powertrains
1.13. 48V mild hybrid commercial van
1.14. Volvo Truck Technology view of 48V mild hybrid truck opportunity
1.15. Nanowinn tourist bus
2.1. Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025
2.2. Transport of people 2010-2025
2.3. LCV and urban bus usage hours
2.4. China carbon dioxide emissions vs rest of world
2.5. Green vehicles in China 2015-2020
2.6. Sales of BYD electric buses in China 2015
2.7. BYD deployment of electric taxis
2.8. BYD QIN hybrid car
2.9. Strategy of Iveco Italy in late 2014
3.1. Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport
3.2. Bus size vs fuel consumption
4.1. Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
4.2. Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
4.3. Heavy electric vehicle
4.4. Toyota fuel cell forklift and other fuel cell vehicles and activities
4.5. Fuel cell forklifts from across the world
4.6. Refuelling a Plug Power unit
4.7. APFCT fuel cell forklift system showing two refueller cabinets
4.8. Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2014
4.9. World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments
5.1. Electric bus in Nepal
5.2. Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
5.3. Garbage collecting electric car
6.1. Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type
6.2. Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range
6.3. Passenger travel by bus by region in England.
6.4. Bus size vs fuel consumption
6.5. BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014
6.6. The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarised below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top
6.7. Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental
6.8. UITP summary of technological options for buses
6.9. MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China
6.10. EV powertrain technology roadmap
6.11. Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer
6.12. North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold
6.13. Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
6.14. Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
6.15. Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
6.16. The Nikola One has 6×6 all-wheel drive
6.17. The Extended Range Electric Vehicle EREV truck
6.18. Planned TEVA hybrid truck and JAC production line.
6.19. EDI CNG hybrid truck
6.20. The electric truck by the BMW Group and the SCHERM group
6.21. A Mack® LR® model retrofitted with the Wrightspeed Route™ 1000 powertrain
7.1. Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
7.2. BYD taxi rollouts in late 2014
7.3. BYD Qin hybrid car
7.4. The Terra Motors e-trike
8.1. Nissan DeltaWing
8.2. Energy dissipation through air resistance
8.3. Typical Chinese three wheel on-road vehicles.
8.4. Electric Three Wheel Taxi by LangFang Sandi Electric Trycicle Co. Ltd.
8.5. Bubble e-bike
8.6. Domestic market share for 2012-13
8.7. Bajaj Auto is a dealer in the manufacturing of commercial three wheel vehicles
8.8. Bajaj Affordable Three Wheel Commercial Vehicle 2014 (2,000 usd) available in Natural Gas, Liquefied Gas and Diesel versions
8.9. Electric vehicle cost breakeven
8.10. Twike pedal-assisted electric vehicle left in Switzerland and some of the 100 Mexico City pedelec taxis right
8.11. Piaggio tilting three wheel scooters with conventional engines and below one from Xingue China
8.12. Toyota i-Road pure electric tilting three wheeler
8.13. E-trikes used as taxis
8.14. Spira4u
8.15. Mule: Modern Electric Workhorse to Slice Through Urban Traffic Easily
9.1. Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining
9.2. Sanyo commercial vehicle with extending solar panels for charging when stationary and mine with electric trucks using local solar and wind
9.3. Energy and work synchronization
9.4. Pure electric light mining vehicles
9.5. Bailey hybrid electric crane
9.6. Konecranes hybrid electric stacker
9.7. Pure electric manlift
10.1. Hybrid bus powertrain
10.2. Hybrid car powertrain using CNG
10.3. Some hybrid variants
10.4. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
10.5. Trend to deep hybridisation
10.6. Evolution of hybrid structure
10.7. Price premium for hybrid buses
10.8. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
10.9. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored
10.10. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
10.11. Comparison of battery technologies
10.12. Where supercapacitors fit in
10.13. Energy density vs power density for storage devices
10.14. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
10.15. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
10.16. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
10.17. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
10.18. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
10.19. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
10.20. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
10.21. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
10.22. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
10.23. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
10.24. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
10.25. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
10.26. Volkswagen view of the attractions of 38V
10.27. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
10.28. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
10.29. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
10.30. Here comes lithium
10.31. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
10.32. The Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 1898 showing its two in-wheel electric motors. Another version had four
10.33. Mitsubishi in-wheel motor
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