报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18487

Abstract

Vehicle sales in Argentina declined 25.5% y-o-y in the first three months of 2014, to 151,306 units. BMI has become increasingly bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2014 on the back of a devaluation of the peso in January, and the likelihood of further weakness in the unit going forward, and new taxes on autos imports. High inflation, slowing real wage growth, and increasing unemployment levels are likely to keep private consumption subdued in 2014, weighing on consumers' appetite for big ticket purchases. Moreover, high base effects from strong sales growth in 2013 will temper the y-o-y growth rate.

We expect these dynamics to continue over the coming months, and believe this will weigh on the autos sector. Accordingly, we forecast a bearish 20.0% decline over the year. We caution that, if inflation continues to escalate, Argentine consumers may start to purchase vehicles as a store against inflation, as we have seen in Venezuela. This would serve to drive sales, but would lead to a huge increase in used car prices and further exacerbate inflation problems.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ..................................... 7

SWOT ............................................ 8

Political ................................................. 9

Economic ................................................. 10

Business Environment .......................................... 11

Industry Forecast ...................................... 13

Production, Sales and Trade ........................................ 13

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Sales .................................................. 13

Production ................................................ 15

Trade ................................................. 16

Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 19

Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Sales .................................................. 19

Table: Argentina Passenger Car Sales By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Production ................................................ 21

Table: Argentina Passenger Car Production By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Trade ................................................. 23

Investments ............................................... 24

Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 25

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Sales .................................................. 25

Table: Argentina Light Commercial Vehicle Sales By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Sales By Brand .............................. 27

Table: Argentina Bus And Coach Sales By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Production ................................................ 28

Table: Argentina LCV Production By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Production By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Table: Argentina Bus And Coach Production By Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Suppliers ................................................ 29

Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 30

Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 36

Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Company Profile ...................................... 39

Industry Trend Analysis .......................................... 39

Regional Overview .................................... 42

Global Industry Overview .................................. 47

Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 47

Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 49

China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 50

Demographic Forecast ................................... 53

Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Methodology ........................................ 57

Industry Forecasts ............................................ 57

Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 58

Sources ................................................ 58

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 59

Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 60

报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18487