报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19752

Abstract

While our headline growth forecast for 2014 has been revised up slightly to 3.3%, the bigger revisions come in the balance between segments, with an upward revision for light truck sales and downward for passenger car sales. Our view that light truck sales will outperform is also playing out, although outpacing our initial expectations with 5M14 segment sales up 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y).

A key driver of truck sales is the housing market, which is a key indicator of demand in this segment. Our Infrastructure team believes that while losing steam, the housing market will still contribute to a rebound in the residential construction sector in 2014 - a major source of light truck demand. We now expect light truck sales to grow 9.0% in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 3.8%. This will see the segment reach the milestone of 1mn units.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ..................................... 7

SWOT ............................................ 8

Political ................................................. 9

Economic ................................................. 10

Industry Forecast ...................................... 11

Production, Sales and Trade ........................................ 11

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . 11

Production ................................................ 13

Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 14

Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . 14

Table: Canada - Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Table: Canada - Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales 5M14 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 17

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . 17

Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Table: Class 8 Truck Sales 2013 .............................. 19

Table: Class 5 Truck Sales 4M14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Table: Class 6 Truck Sales 4M14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Table: Class 7 Truck Sales 4M14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Table: Class 8 Truck Sales 4M14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Suppliers ................................................ 21

Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 25

Table: Canada - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ............................... 33

Americas - Risk Reward Ratings ....................................... 33

Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Company Profile ...................................... 36

Industry Trend Analysis .......................................... 36

Ford Motor ................................................ 39

General Motors ............................................. 40

Regional Overview .................................... 41

Americas Overview ............................................ 41

Global Industry Overview .................................. 46

Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 46

Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 48

China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 49

Demographic Forecast ................................... 52

Demographic Outlook .......................................... 52

Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Methodology ........................................ 56

Industry Forecasts ............................................ 56

Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 57

Sources ................................................ 57

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 58

Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . 59

报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19752