报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19025
Abstract
2014 looks as though it will be a more challenging year for the Australian auto industry, in line with BMI's expectations. Looking at sales trends over Q114, March represented the third consecutive month of annual declines in auto sales, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Sales in March 2014 fell by 0.14% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 97,267 units, which brought sales for the first three months of the year to 266,370 units, a decrease of 2.45% y-o-y.
BMI expects the sales outlook to remain clouded by a variety of factors. On the commercial vehicle sales front, a drop in demand for commodities from China will impact heavily on the Australian mining sector, leading to greatly reduced demand for vehicles. Indeed, the worsening fundamentals of the mining sector have prompted us to downgrade our 2014 commercial vehicles sales forecast to 215,000 units, a decline of 8.9%, from a contraction of 2.1% previously (see Commercial Vehicles section of this report for more information).
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 9
Political ................................................. 11
Economic ................................................. 12
Business Environment .......................................... 13
Industry Forecast ...................................... 15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . 15
Production ................................................ 16
Trade ................................................. 18
Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 19
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018) . . . . . . 19
Table: Australia - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 22
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018) .......... 22
Electric Vehicles ............................................ 23
Motorcycles ................................................ 26
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . 26
Table: Australia - Top 10 Best-Selling Motorcycle Manufacturers 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Suppliers ................................................ 27
Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 31
Monetary Easing Can Only Do So Much .................................. 32
Weaker AUD To Provide Some Reprieve .................................. 33
Table: Australia - Economic Activity ............................... 34
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ............................... 35
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Company Profile ...................................... 39
Company Monitor ............................................ 39
Ford Motor ................................................ 43
GM Holden ................................................ 46
Toyota Motor .............................................. 48
Regional Overview .................................... 50
Asia Regional Overview .......................................... 50
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Global Industry Overview .................................. 55
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 55
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 57
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 58
Demographic Forecast ................................... 61
Demographic Outlook .......................................... 61
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Methodology ........................................ 65
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 65
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 66
Sources ................................................ 66
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 67
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 68
报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19025